How to Spot 10-Year Trends and Build Billion-Dollar Companies — Kevin Ryan

The gist

1. List 20 trends you think will last a decade, then ask what products don't exist yet but will be necessary.
2. Look at second-order effects of a trend, like the suppliers or infrastructure it creates, rather than betting on the obvious winners.
3. In year one, hire a strong product person and designer before anyone else, and prove people want what you're building before focusing on growth.
4. Ryan takes 8 to 10 weeks off each year and prioritizes fitness and family, saying this kind of discipline compounds over decades of decision-making.