The Hidden Capital Crunch Behind Silicon Valley’s AI Boom

The gist

1. Naimi says firms that lose a round now pay three to five times the price in a second tranche, which he calls necessary for capital-hungry companies.
2. He warns that 10 to 20x growth usually hides a catch, like low margins or concentrated customers, so founders should compare themselves to similar companies.
3. Mega funds are deploying about 3x faster than planned, and some VCs now ask founders to wait up to three months for committed money.
4. Naimi bets on two to three more trillion-dollar companies, not 40, and says backing brilliant founders on non-obvious ideas, like Conduit in BCI, beats chasing consensus.
5. He rates the opportunity set a 10 and frothiness 6.5 to 7, and says his biggest mistake was always raising Abstract's funds too small.