Nate Silver on Polymarket, Kalshi and the 2026 Senate Map
Nate Silver joins Scott Galloway and Ed Elson to compare Polymarket and Kalshi odds with his own models for the 2026 midterms, covering polling errors, campaign money, and key Senate and House races.
The gist
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Silver says it is hard to predict which way polls will miss: they underestimated Trump in 2024 but Democrats in 2018 and 2022.
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Silver thinks money is overrated in high-profile races where voters tune out ads, and would donate to state legislature, city council or House races instead.
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Kalshi favors Talarico 67-33 in Texas; Silver, a Polymarket adviser, says it hinges on Hispanic voters in South and West Texas turning back.
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Silver sees Maine as riskier since Collins beat 2020 polls by 9 or 10 points, while his model gives El-Sayed 75 to 80% in Michigan.
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Silver says redistricting raised Democrats' House target to 8 or 9 seats, but Trump plus 17 districts could still elect Democratic incumbents in a wave.
Also mentioned
3:35
Kalshi
· "In some of these races, Polymarket and Kalshi have lagged the models. That Texas number has now gotten..."
4:49
Polymarket
· "Maine, Polymarket and Kalshi both have Jackson at about 2/3 chance, 65 and 64% respectively."
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