Nate Silver: Democrats Have a 75% Shot at the Senate
Statistician Nate Silver joins Scott Galloway and Ed Elson two weeks before the midterms to explain why his model gives Democrats about a 75% chance at the Senate, plus advice on building an independent media business.
The gist
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Silver's model gives Democrats about a 75% chance to win the Senate and about 95% for the House, citing Trump's approval and $4.30 gas.
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Silver says Democrats must win states Trump carried by double digits, like Texas, Ohio, Iowa, Alaska or Kansas, since North Carolina and Maine only net two seats.
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Silver says money is overrated in high-profile races and would rather donors fund state legislature, city council and House races with less media coverage.
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Silver says correlated polling errors across similar states are why his Senate odds are 75% rather than the 90% independent races would suggest.
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Silver runs Silver Bulletin on Substack with four people and no outside capital, using Claude and ChatGPT to audit code and copy edit.
"In my case, we program these models. Well, now all of a sudden in Claude and ChatGPT, you know, I have a couple of expert programmers that work very quickly. They're not great at model design, they're not great at the empirical questions, but in terms of like can you audit my ..."
▶ Play at 24:06250 creators recommend it, including Riley Brown, Chris Koerner, and This Week in Startups.
See all on the Claude page"Well, now all of a sudden in Claude and ChatGPT, you know, I have a couple of expert programmers that work very quickly... in terms of like can you audit my code, update the code, make this program run 10 times faster, right? They're very helpful with that."
▶ Play at 24:06159 creators recommend it, including John Coogan, Riley Brown, and Peter Yang.
See all on the ChatGPT pageWhat they recommend · 2 picks
"Well, now all of a sudden in Claude and ChatGPT, you know, I have a couple of expert programmers that work very quickly... in terms of like can you audit my code, update the cod..."
"In my case, we program these models. Well, now all of a sudden in Claude and ChatGPT, you know, I have a couple of expert programmers that work very quickly. They're not great a..."
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