Trump’s Tariffs Backfired Again. This Time in Brazil.
On the Prof G Pod, Laura Janér talks with Brian Winter of Americas Quarterly about Lula's surprise comeback win in Brazil, why the race flipped in three weeks, and the hard economy and Congress he now faces.
The gist
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The hosts argue Trump's 50% tariffs, tied to Jair Bolsonaro's prosecution, helped turn Lula into a nationalist hero, much as tariffs helped Mark Carney.
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Winter credits a WhatsApp group called Lula's Army, which grew from 50,000 to 10 million people in three weeks, for the turnaround.
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Winter says strong headline numbers hid real strain, including very high interest rates and polling showing households spend 30% of income servicing debt.
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Winter notes Lula tacked right, avoiding abortion and backing a cut in the age of criminal responsibility from 18 to 16.
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Winter is mixed on Brazil: he expects a hard 2027 with a very conservative Congress, but believes its long-term outlook is brighter.
Also mentioned
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