“Trump Might Actually Do the Unthinkable”

The gist

1. The analyst puts 20% or higher odds on U.S. territorial expansion, with the 2028 election being the key factor that raises or lowers that risk.
2. Historically, governments have managed surplus young men through conscription or war, and the analyst ties today's marriage collapse among men to that same pressure.
3. Taiwan falling to China through soft power and economic ties is seen as more likely than an outright military invasion.
4. The U.S. has come through the Civil War and large immigration waves without collapse, suggesting current divisions may follow a familiar recovery pattern.