Tucker Claims We Are days Away From A MASSIVE Strike On Iran
Tom Bilyeu reacts to Tucker Carlson's claim of an imminent US nuclear strike on Iran, then covers midterm polls, hedge fund AI selling, private credit defaults, AI's hit to search traffic, Poland's court crisis and a Florida Learjet crash.
The gist
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Bilyeu says a nuclear strike on Iran's Pickaxe Mountain is very unlikely, citing fallout over Gulf allies and the end of non-proliferation.
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Bilyeu cites polling misses in 2016, 2020 and 2024 and Times/Siena response rates under 2% to argue midterm polls will be off, direction unknown.
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Bilyeu says hedge funds selling $20 billion in tech and a record 6.3% private credit default rate signal an AI bubble deflating, ideally slowly.
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Using his "what if my behavior were universal" test, Bilyeu argues AI answers will hollow out search traffic and ad revenue, as Reddit and Google show.
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Bilyeu says he holds "strong convictions loosely held," stating views plainly while seeking evidence against them and updating fast.
Tom Bilyeu uses it
"I'm heavy into treasuries right now, all short-term, because I'm super paranoid about the government's accumulation of debt for obvious reasons. I know I can't sit in cash, so it's like I don't know where else to go."
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"I like to play a game as an entrepreneur called 'what if my behavior were universal?' And then you get a picture of, if everyone is like me, search is going to fall off of a cliff. Ad revenue is going to fall off of a cliff."
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Tom Bilyeu uses it
"I think people look at AI as a commodity, and I use Claude right now, but if OpenAI came out with something that was substantively better, I would switch immediately."
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"The way that I think in general is to plant a flag so that you understand your own thinking and then immediately update your thinking as you get new information... I'm saying things with, what do they say? Strong convictions loosely held. I'm not only open to changing my mind,..."
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"The way that I think in general is to plant a flag so that you understand your own thinking and then immediately update your thinking as you get new information... I'm saying th..."
"Here's the thing. If you're going to get a pilot's license, spend a lot of time in the simulations. A lot. A lot. A lot. A lot. A lot."
"I'm heavy into treasuries right now, all short-term, because I'm super paranoid about the government's accumulation of debt for obvious reasons. I know I can't sit in cash, so i..."
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