Markets Are Ignoring the Blockade — Should They? | Prof G Markets

The gist

1. The economist says markets see a de-escalation trend and treat $100 oil as something the US and global economy can withstand, staying in expansion in 2026.
2. March inflation hit 3.3%, a two-year high, with gasoline up over 20% in a month; Morgan Stanley expects headline inflation to peak around 3.7%.
3. The economist says core inflation could ease in the second half because pump prices squeeze spending, though five years above the 2% target raises risks.
4. He warns a long closure could become a shortage story, hitting Asia first, since about 85% of oil from the Strait of Hormuz goes there.
5. He says markets now look past headlines: oil rose 8 to 10% on the blockade while US stocks held up, after investors unwound bets on falling rates.