The Bond Market Is Screaming… and Nobody’s Listening
Tom Bilyeu argues that bond market signals are warning of serious economic instability, while stock markets hit record highs in what he sees as dangerous denial.
The gist
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The Fed cannot cut rates because inflation jumped from 2.4% to 3.8% in two months, but raising rates would break Treasury debt service costs.
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Bond yields across all G7 nations are spiking at once, with US 30-year treasuries above 5%, which Bilyeu says has historically preceded major crashes.
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The Shiller CAPE ratio hit 40 for only the third time in 150 years; the prior two times stocks fell 89% and 78%.
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Bilyeu recommends having a written contingency plan before volatility hits, so you are not making decisions under pressure during a sharp correction.
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