Your Bills Are About to Go Up. The Fed Can’t Stop It. | Prof G Markets

The gist

1. Oil price shocks hit gas pumps within 2 weeks, then spread to groceries, fertilizer, and airline tickets since 40% of food costs relate to transportation.
2. The Fed is stuck: raising rates to fight oil-driven inflation could weaken the job market, so Powell declined to commit to any single forecast.
3. Oil could land anywhere from $70 a barrel with a quick resolution to $150-200 a barrel if the Middle East conflict drags on.
4. A mini stagflation is already emerging, but full 1970s-style stagflation with 10% unemployment and 10% inflation looks unlikely unless oil hits $200 or more.