China Isn't Rising. It's Peaking — And That's Why War Is Coming
Tom Bilyeu argues that China's demographic collapse, not its rise, makes war increasingly likely, drawing parallels to Imperial Germany, Japan, and Russia.
The gist
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Declining powers are more dangerous than rising ones because a closing strategic window pushes leaders toward high-risk military gambles.
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China's population peaked in 2022, shrinking the workforce and tax base that drove 30 years of growth, compressing Beijing's timeline for action.
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China has built full-scale replicas of Taiwan's government buildings and naval bases and trained decapitation strike operations, suggesting concrete invasion planning.
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Taiwan makes over 90% of the world's advanced chips, so a conflict there would trigger a global economic depression almost immediately.
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