Netflix Lost. Now What?

The gist

1. Netflix took a $2.8 billion breakup fee instead of countering Paramount's offer, choosing to hold cash over a major acquisition.
2. Paramount will carry around $70 billion in net debt after the deal, making Netflix a likely licensing partner despite being a direct competitor.
3. There is roughly a 70% chance of meaningful content licensing deals between the merged company and Netflix within two years, likely driven by regulators.
4. Crown jewels like The Sopranos and DC properties are unlikely to be licensed out; Netflix would get secondary content with limited windows.