2nd Half Bets: Monday Night Football, Broncos at Chiefs

The gist

1. Mahomes shows significant rust with a -21.4% completion percentage over expectation and -0.27 EPA per play, pointing to deeper mechanical issues.
2. The under 20.5 in the second half is their preferred play, as Kansas City will slow tempo with a lead while Denver's offense struggles.
3. Week one is a poor environment for betting models, so they recommend conservative position sizing and leaning on defensive and situational metrics.
4. For survivor pools, they suggest avoiding chalk picks like Tampa Bay and San Francisco and targeting teams like Pittsburgh or Jacksonville early.