2nd Half Bets: Sunday Night Football, Colts at Chiefs

The gist

1. When a line moves against your bet after you place it, decide if the market is revealing a flaw in your reasoning or just noise.
2. Team total overs can beat side bets when a team's offense is strong but the spread is inflated by story lines.
3. Track which sportsbooks cancel winning bets or rule against you repeatedly, as the friction can cost more than any pricing advantage.
4. A team's schedule context, like losing their two easiest games, shifts the betting narrative and influences future line movement significantly.