Thrive Raises New $10B Fund | OpenAI Buys OpenClaw | Stripe at $140B: Is Adyen Wildly Undervalued?
Hosts Harry Stebbings and Jason Lemkin discuss the seismic shifts reshaping tech investing in early 2026, analyzing Anthropic's $30 billion funding round at a $380 billion valuation, Thrive's $10 billion mega-fund, and the strategic positioning of Stripe versus Adyen in the payments space. The episode explores how capital has abandoned traditional SaaS in favor of AI companies, the existential threats facing legacy software, and the explosive developer movement around autonomous agents following OpenAI's acquisition of OpenClaw creator Peter Steinberger.
Key takeaways
- • Anthropic's unprecedented 10x year-over-year revenue growth for three consecutive years has never been seen before at this scale, even comparing to early Microsoft and Google, though unlike those companies it remains unprofitable.
- • The "gravity well" effect is pulling all venture capital and public market attention exclusively toward AI companies, leaving traditional SaaS businesses trading at depressed valuations despite solid 10-20% growth rates.
- • Enterprise customers are willing AI into existence regardless of proven ROI because CEOs view AI as a mandatory strategic bet, similar to previous waves around cloud adoption and digital transformation.
- • Autonomous agent capabilities have reached an inflection point, with tools like Monaco already booking six-figure deals autonomously and Open's upcoming Replit v4 building features overnight, creating both massive opportunity and security risks.
- • The OpenClaw acquisition by OpenAI represents a shift in how incumbents view edge-case safety concerns—the developer community's enthusiasm for the technology forced both OpenAI and Anthropic to acknowledge that constraining innovation around agents was untenable.
- • Public software companies face an impossible choice: either remain profitable at lower growth rates (like Adyen at 20% growth, 50% operating margins) or invest heavily in AI transformation while managing earnings, with investors currently rewarding growth over profitability.
- • Figma missed a $300-400 million revenue opportunity in AI-assisted design/coding by failing to build competitive generative features before tools like Replit and Lovable captured the market, illustrating how quickly AI disruption can outpace incumbent product development.
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