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Sarah Tavel This Week in Startups
+3 more
Amol Avasare Michael Saylor Howard Marks

Thinking in Bets

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3 creators

Tracking VC investment decisions — recording what she liked/disliked about each company and the reasoning behind yes/no decisions, then reviewing to improve future decision-making

"Annie Duke inspired this — I create, she wrote this book Thinking in Bets — a pre-mortem. So every time I meet with a company and I dig in on it a little bit, I write to myself what I liked, what I didn't like, what the deal would have been, and if I got ye..."

Sarah Tavel

Why the Next Hit AI Product Will Be Social (Best of the Pod) ▶ 41:58
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Learning about decision-making and probabilistic thinking

"There's the book, Thinking in Bets. It's a quick read. Get the audio book. I think she reads it. Just required reading."

This Week in Startups

Naval’s $500 VC fund, the Maduro Polymarket scandal, and NYT defends theft and murder | E2280 ▶ 19:28
"thinking in bets by Annie Duke. Those types of things I think are just so tactically helpful in product"

Amol Avasare

How Anthropic is using Claude to automate its own growth (and why old playbooks are obsolete) ▶ 1:48:04
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Fooled by Randomness

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2 creators

Understanding applied statistics, distinguishing meaningful signals from random data, improving decision-making

"I studied practical applied statistics — all the stuff that Nassim Taleb wrote, like Fooled by Randomness and Skin in the Game and The Black Swan — how do you know the difference between something that's meaningful and something that's just misleading rando..."

Michael Saylor

Man Who Owns 4% Of All Bitcoin: His Final WARNING To Everyone Who Doesn't Own It | Michael Saylor ▶ 1:34:52
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Understanding the role of randomness in investing and life; shaping attitudes toward risk and portfolio construction

"The other book would be Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. I'm a great believer that a lot in life is random. Taleb basically says in the short run anything can happen because of randomness, and this determines our attitude toward risk, our atti..."

Howard Marks

I'm 80 and I wasted 25 years of my life. Don't make my mistake. - Howard Marks ▶ 42:22
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