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technique
Probability of Adjustment
1 creator use or recommend it
▲ 1 active in the last 90 days
1 use
Last discussed Nov 12, 2026
A reframing of Monte Carlo 'probability of success' as the likelihood that a client will need to make spending adjustments.
Recently discussed in
Helping Clients Who Want A Retirement They Can't Afford - Kitces & Carl Ep 203
Michael Kitces · Nov 12, 2026
What creators say
Michael Kitces
uses
Used for: Presenting Monte Carlo results to clients whose spending is aggressive
Praised: Shows clients that a shortfall means making adjustments rather than outright ...
vs: Replaces the traditional 'probability of success' language
"And so still to this day I stopped calling it probability of success and started calling it probability of adjustment... There was a 70% chance that they were on track and a 30% chance that they were going to have to make adjustments, and they wer..."
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