Kelly Criterion

technique

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Last discussed Jul 30, 2026

A mathematical formula for optimal bet/position sizing developed by John Kelly at Bell Labs, widely used by gamblers and investors to maximize long-term growth while minimizing risk of ruin.

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Leo Sold, Ferrari Undefeated, Meta Down, Microsoft Up, Market Turmoil

Martin Shkreli · Jul 30, 2026

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Martin Shkreli · Jul 30, 2026

What creators say

Martin Shkreli

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Used for: Optimal position sizing in trading to avoid ruin Praised: Mathematically proves optimal bet size; running the simulator shows even a 60... vs: Most traders bet 2-10x more than the Kelly Criterion would recommend, leading...

"I made a Kelly criterion calculator and a little portfolio simulator tool. Every single trader out there seems to make the same mistake over and over again — their position size is probably two to ten times more than it should be. If you actually ..."

Leo Sold, Ferrari Undefeated, Meta Down, Microsoft Up, Ma... · ▶ 58:54 · Jul 30, 2026