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technique
Base Rates Over Vibes
1 creator use or recommend it
▲ 1 active in the last 90 days
1 use
Last discussed Nov 4, 2026
A decision heuristic that judges trustworthiness by asking how often a situation like this one is legitimate, rather than relying on gut feelings or body language.
Recently discussed in
Manipulation, Solved
Mark Manson · Nov 4, 2026
What creators say
Mark Manson
uses
Used for: Assessing whether a salesperson, contractor, or email is a scam
Praised: More accurate than vibe checks on body language, which are unreliable
vs: Contrasted with judging trustworthiness by body language and gut feeling
"I've got another one here that I wrote down as use base rates, not vibes, which I actually really like. I use this a lot in my daily life. I think what's more useful to do in situations is to remove yourself from the situation and just ask yoursel..."
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