The Leaked Iran Attack Plan Never Mattered — And Here's Why
Tom Bilyeu argues that US threats against Iran are hollow due to depleted munitions, reluctant allies, and an ideological mismatch that structural constraints make escalation impossible.
The gist
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Bilyeu says Gulf states have blocked US military action four times by threatening to pull investments, forcing Trump to back down.
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The US has depleted 50 to 60 percent of long-range precision munitions, leaving too little capacity to fight Iran while deterring China.
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Bilyeu argues Iran's theocratic conviction gives fighters tenacity that a transactional, deal-focused mindset cannot match in negotiations.
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Bilyeu says once adversaries stop fearing you, as Iran has, actual warfare becomes inevitable and unwinnable, echoing Britain's Suez Canal collapse.
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