Every Time This Happens To The Yen, Markets Break — We Had To React
Tom Bilyeu explains how Japan's unwinding carry trade could spike US Treasury yields, hit stock portfolios, and raise mortgage rates for everyday Americans.
The gist
-
Japan borrowed at near-zero rates for 30 years to invest globally, and reversing that trade has historically preceded crashes in 1998, 2008, and 2020.
-
Japan's $1.8 trillion pension fund holds over $230 billion in US Treasuries, and even partial repatriation could push up mortgage and borrowing rates.
-
Japan is trying to lure capital home with incentives like cutting taxes on returning offshore wealth from 55% to 20% and new crypto-friendly laws.
-
Bilyeu says the real problem is Japan needs genuine economic growth, otherwise forced capital controls similar to China's model become more likely.
Tom, This Week in Startups, Greg and Ali agree on 32 things
See what they all use, in their own words. Paid ads are left out.
See what they all swear by Or pick your own peopleAds in this episode
Surfshark. They're paid, so we keep them out of the picks above.
See what Tom recommends without being paid →
◎
Related episodes
Episodes covering similar topics
More from Tom Bilyeu