Why quantum has been “10 years away” for 30 years | E2316

The gist

1. Quantum computers only speed up specific problems like optimization and cryptography, so founders should expect them to complement GPUs and CPUs, not replace them.
2. Algorithm improvements have cut the qubit count needed for useful computation from 1 million down to around 10,000, and hardware is getting close to that threshold.
3. Nakashoji says neutral atom qubits cost 100-1,000 times less per qubit than the superconducting approach used by Google and IBM, which helps with scaling.
4. Adversaries are already collecting encrypted data now to decrypt later with quantum machines, giving organizations a 5-10 year window to adopt post-quantum encryption.