You Think You're Diversified. AI Disagrees. | Prof G Markets
Apollo's chief economist Torsten Slok discusses macroeconomic headwinds and opportunities facing U.S. markets in 2026, including geopolitical risks from Iran, inflation persistence, and the transformative but uncertain impact of AI on employment. The episode explores how rising oil prices, strong economic tailwinds (AI spending, industrial renaissance, fiscal stimulus), and extreme portfolio concentration in the Magnificent 7 create a complex investment landscape where traditional diversification strategies no longer work.
Key takeaways
- • Oil price shocks from Middle East instability will likely keep inflation elevated for longer, forcing the Fed to hold rates higher despite labor market weakness, creating a stagflation risk.
- • The U.S. is uniquely positioned to weather energy shocks because it's now an energy exporter, while Europe and Asia face much steeper economic headwinds from higher oil prices due to their energy dependence.
- • Despite widespread corporate layoffs attributed to AI, mass unemployment from automation is unlikely because most jobs involve multiple tasks and governments will intervene with reskilling or redistribution if joblessness spikes significantly.
- • AI exposure has infiltrated entire portfolios—not just equities but also fixed income and venture capital—making traditional 60/40 portfolio diversification ineffective and necessitating explicit investments in non-AI assets like gold, Brazilian stocks, and European credit.
- • A K-shaped economic recovery is widening wealth and income gaps: high earners benefit from asset appreciation and higher interest rates on savings, while low-income households face higher inflation exposure (housing, food, utilities) and slower wage growth.
- • The key to navigating 2026 is identifying which shocks have persistence and longevity—AI spending will likely outlast geopolitical disruptions—and building thematic investments around those durable trends.
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