Pricing the Iran War's Future — Are Markets Right? | Prof G Markets
Scott Galloway, Katie Martin, and Justin Wolfers debate whether financial markets are correctly pricing the Iran conflict or dangerously underestimating its potential economic fallout.
The gist
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Markets are skipping the usual safe-haven moves like gold and bonds, which the hosts say suggests investors see this as a buying opportunity rather than a real crisis.
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A Strait of Hormuz closure could push oil to $150 to $200 per barrel, and Iranian officials have signaled they intend to keep disruptions going.
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Wolfers notes Iraq War forecasts were off by more than 365 times actual duration, suggesting markets may be badly underestimating the Iran conflict's scale.
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International investors are quietly shifting new capital away from the US toward Europe and Asia, though American asset managers appear largely unaware of this trend.
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