URGENT UPDATE - The Iran War Expert: The Most Dangerous Stage Begins Now

The gist

1. Pape says bombing campaigns historically fail because they unify civilian populations, and Iran's political strength has grown, not shrunk, as a result.
2. Iran controls a chokepoint over 80 to 90 percent of global oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing US allies like India and Japan toward neutrality.
3. Pape says watch troop deployments, not rhetoric: if Marines and carriers surge to the region, a ground assault on Iranian oil fields could be months away.
4. The only workable off-ramp, Pape argues, involves cutting US funding to Israel by congressional legislation and requiring Israel to join the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.