URGENT UPDATE - Iran War Expert: A Mass Casualty Attack Is Coming! | Robert Pape

The gist

1. Iran now controls the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil flows, giving it leverage over the global economy.
2. Pape says global oil reserves will run out by mid-August 2026 if the blockade holds, and the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve is at its lowest since 1983.
3. Pape puts a 70% probability on a U.S. ground operation within weeks, which he says would likely trigger the largest suicide terrorism campaign in modern history.
4. Pape's 25 years of data show that occupying foreign territory is the single biggest risk factor for suicide terrorist attacks against the occupying country.