The Draft is Happening

The gist

1. Teams that keep their picks truly secret force markets to price based on outdated consensus, creating big odds mispricings right up to the announcement.
2. Across the top 10 picks, only 2 matched the public favorites, so betting against mock drafts often offers better odds than following conventional wisdom.
3. Betting over/under on draft position range can be more predictable than guessing exact picks, offering better risk-adjusted returns.
4. Linking two bets on the same player at different slots compounds your risk, so splitting exposure across independent markets helps avoid big losses.